when you're trying to say haley is the right candidate? >> it depends on with what your ambition is. what's nikki haley going to do tonight? you tell me. does she think she has a future in trump's party? >> are you telling me that tim scott has ambitions other than being a senator? >> they want to stay in office. they decided it's easier to be with him to win reelection. it depends on where you are. in south carolina, you can't win with without trump. in new hampshire, you can't quite win with trump. it depends on the state you're in. and trump does bring out voters like in a south carolina that don't always come out. that's why they all run scared. >> nancy mace won with haley. i get confused. is that when she put the boom box up to trump tower? >> it's great to have you. thank you very much. i'm up against a hard out. thank you. special coverage begins now.

welcome to msnbc's special coverage of the new hampshire primary. we're here in manchester, new hampshire, for what could be the defining contest of the 2024 republican primary. for republican voters, there's now just one alternative to an ex-president who incited an insurrection, faces 91 felony counts in 4 jurisdictions who says he want thes to be dictator for a day. i could really go on and on about trump's alarming statements, but we don't have all day for that. the one person left standing in his way is former south carolina governor nikki haley. she spent the morning in new hampshire. trump did a stop and his

surrogates marjorie taylor greene are also crisscrossing the state for him. out there campaigning on his behalf. haley now has that two-person contest she's always wanted. but everything suggests that she's an uphill climb. the last tracking poll out this morning shows trump up by 22 points. that's a lot. and over the last few weeks, the haley campaign has been resetting expectations, because there was a period of time with when the thought was after chris christie got out, she would gain those votes and really start surging. that hasn't exactly happened. and her top surrogate in the state has been with her at every event, once predicted she would win in new hampshire. now he says second place is just fine. >> at the end of the day, this is a one-on-one race. this is nikki haley vs. donald trump. i think she's going to do very well in iowa. she's going to challenge trump. i think she wins here in new hampshire. >> a close second. >> no one has ever said nikki haley has to win new hampshire.

>> there's kind of a tape for everything, isn't there? part of the message from the haley campaign is basically don't count me out. i'm the all the ty to truch. turn out, don't count me out. she needs to keep building moving forward. after all, new hampshire has a bit of a history of stunning primary upsets. john mccain beat bush in 2000. eight years later, hillary clinton came from behind and beat barack obama. i remember that one very well. if there is an upset, which would be one of the greatest primary upsets in history in part because of that margin, it will happen because of independent voters. who can participate in the primary. and they could make all the difference. now in the last competitive republican primary in 2016, independents made up more than 40% of the electorate. but typically you feel something happening on the ground. i have been here for the last four days. the people have been here for

several days. usually you feel momentum. the type of momentum that propelled the john mccains of the world to an upset. it's not exactly prison here at her events. that's not a magical definition, put it's something to track. the one thing that really matters is what voters have to say. voters are voting now. polls are going to start closing in just three hours. we'll see what they have to say. but the first results are already in. a town has been casting the first votes in the primary for 64 years. and at midnight, nikki haley swept donald trump winning all of the town's 6 votes. so no matter what happens tonight, she will always have dixville notch. we're going to start with john heilemann. it's also his birthday, although he doesn't want singing. along with claire mccaskill who is here with us. and two msnbc news

correspondents ali vitali and garrett haake. you're with the haleyment campaign puff been covering them for days. tell us a little bit about how they are feeling tonight. what's the argument that she and her top surrogates are making in the final hours? >> reporter: it's been days on the ground here in new hampshire. and months and months that i'm really feeling the weight of today because this is frankly the do or die moment for the haley the campaign. this is not the way they are saying it. you played that clip of governor sununu saying haley was never expected or needed to win here in new hampshire. but certainly, a win would be nice. that's unspoken from the haley team. but it would lend even more credence to why they are saying they are staying in that race and vowing to go not just through her home state of south carolina, but all the way through super tuesday. and in part it's because they believe the coalition they are building here, which includes

those undeclared or independent voters can be replicated in other states down the line. voters who i spoke to here were voting for haley and would love to vote for haley because they don't know what they would do in a general election otherwise. listen. >> i voted for haley. >> why? >> because i disagree with a lot of what trump has done. >> you're ab independent. have you ever voted for trump? >> no. >> have you voted for biden? >> i did. >> would row you vote for biden again? >> good question. i don't know. maybe. >> that's the way the coalition is coming together at least here in new hampshire. and this had is a bell weather following place that we are at here. if you look at the way the numbers came in in 2016 for trump and cruz, we were to lump

all those together, itment comes out to around 47%. the other nonwill have trump candidates from that cycle come out to about 49%. it's an imperfect science, but it's one we're looking a at as a potential scenario if haley were able to cobble together all those voters, she could win in key counties like this and that would be a big deal in the entire state at large. >> it certainly would be. it would be a big surprise if she won in those counties, but we're going to be watching very closely. before i let you go, she had a memo of the highlights. she's been making the case that trump is the institutional candidate, which is kind of interesting. she's the insur jant. what else stuck out to you in that memo or the spin you're hearing from the haley team at this point? >> reporter: there were a few things that stuck out to me, specifically because it's yet

another example of the haley team digging in a their heels. i think one of the phrases that herment campaign manager used in the memo was basically saying, deep breath. we have a long way to go here down the stretch. they are arguing that states like michigan and virginia and texas are places that haley is going to be able to play well. in part, they are arguing because of her actual message and the momentum they feel they are building, even though she has yet to win a state and can't detail which one that would be. that's a real problem if you're saying you're making a a delegate strategy and still trying to contest for the nomination. but they also have the backing. it's the backing of the koch brothers that endorsed haley earlier this year. they are fanned out at the grass roots level knocking on doors, doing the advanced work for haley. so it is haley's game to play within herment campaign. they are focusing on the next states in the california calendar. but they have focuses on the ground. she has donor trips booked

throughout february. all of that lends to the idea she is staying in this race as the trump alternative. the former president no fan of that. we know from garrett's reporting, he's not going to make that an easy one. but still, she's doing it. >> we will see. you're doing it until you're not doing it is always my experience. so we'll see what the outcome is of tonight. it feels like a big impact. we'll let you get back to reporting. thank you for joining us. we're going to bring in garrett. he's been covering the trump team. been to more trump campaign events than most people. tell us how the campaign sees the primary tonight. they want to lock it up if they can. >> reporter: i do think they can. they are optimistic they might be able to knock nikki haley out of this race. if not tonight, in the next couple days. they have been telegraphing that she does decide to stay in this race after tonight, they are going to make her life miserable. in the lead up to south carolina, really through nevada, but in the lead up to south carolina, they are going to continue to do things like what

i they did in new hampshire which is bring a lot of their south carolina endorsers on the road with donald trump. and parade them in front of national media. and try to highlight how isolated they have been able to make nikki haley within the core of the republican party. to the point about the undeclared voters, the folks not necessarily traditional republicans, the trump people basically say, yeah, that's great that you have that, but here in the party that's determining the nominee, we're going to basically freeze you out. they are going to be continuing to do that over the next couple of weeks. now this is my fourth new hampshire primary, which makes me feel very old, but felt that momentum when it exists. to the degree i can feel it here in new hampshire, it tends to be actually more towards trump. i know that's not what a the lot of people want to hear, but you see it in the tracking polls and the data. you do see it in some of the republicans who might have been ron desantis supporters or perhaps supportive earlier on of vivek ramaswamy who dropped out

after iowa. who are coming home to trump just as much as the chris christie, soft, biden supporting republicans are coming home to nikki haley. that's the dynamic the trump team is watching. as they look ahead to south carolina and beyond to super tuesday when the states become winner take all states, a strategy of moral victories and close second places becomes less and less effective the further down the line. they are built to apply that pressure over the next couple weeks. >> first of all, john heilemann is laughing a about your four new hampshire primaries. he's probably covered a few more than that. >> 40 at this point. >> approximately 40. >> i did want to ask about the strategy as it relates to biden. they want to make this seem inevitable, which is clearly their strategy. they are gathering all these surrogates. if they are going to make nikki haley's life a living hell, what are they going to do to biden? >> r. >> reporter: that's an open question. they continue to attack joe

biden on a variety of issues. i was this gaggle with donald trump. he made it clear he wants to continue to go after him on the border. it's interesting to watch trump adjust to news of day in realtime. he's de-emphasized the economy. he's de-emphasized inflation over the last couple weeks as the economy and stock market numbers keep going up. now he's back on the border, which has been a key issue for him. he's reemphasizing it again. and as it relates to the haley part of the conversation, i asked donald trump about how to glo you get nikki haley's voters, become into the 2024. and his answer to me while somewhat con confusing, we're going to have him do that. it's joe biden's numbers will push republicans like the folks that ali interviewed back on to the trump train because they won't be able to stomach joe biden. they seem to think world events

can do the work for them. especially around the border. as the economic numbers go up, thats messaging becomes much harder for trump down the line. >> thank you so much. thank you for attending all the events and tell us what's happening. thank you for joining us. we don't know what's going to happen tonight. we can see different margins. we'll talk about it as it develops. there's a strategic question trump is going to have to figure out. how they run the campaign from here if they the feel they are moving into a general election. >> a different electorate. and it's a different world. they will stay focused on the crucial thing in this memo. she's going to stay until super tuesday. i appreciated your doubt about that. one of the things about having a full calendar and donor calls is if you remove those from your calendar, you're signaling you're dropping out race. even for someone who says i have a withdrawal speech written for wednesday morning, you still are not going to move anything on your calendar. there's nothing about the memo that says she's going to stay.

>> ron desantis said he was in until south carolina. >> you were in until the moment you're out. it's no deal is done until all the parts of the deal are done. i think they will stay focused on her, the trump campaign will until she's gone. it helps him given the way he has run the general election strategies have been base strategies as well. whether that's smart or not i don't know. but he has good for him when he faces all the legal challenges where he wants to be able to get through as much as he can of that, try to push as much of it past the election as he can and keep his base riled up behind him. for that purpose, nikki haley is great news. keeping her around, there's nothing about going into south carolina that worries donald trump. donald trump would like nikki haley to stay in this race and let her beat him again.

it's a strong victory, ep happy to have her humiliate her in her home state. that would only be good for him from the standpoint i i would imagine and on the basis of talking to the some people in that rorld, he wants to run that base strategy long after the nomination fight is over and try to get through the convention. he's just continuing to consolidate that base. he looks at president biden and says, he has problems with his base. i need to go into the general the election with my base fired up. i can start to come the pete for persuadable voters in the fall and see where things are. but the know the trump campaign says he has problems with that. she's the got problems with latinos and problems with young voters. let's make sure that biden says we get to labor day, we don't have any problems with the base after all is said and done. >> run up the margins. show that he dominates the republican party so he get this is consolidated party around

him. show that nikki haley is right. she is the insurgent. he is the republican party. he's the established order. he wants to take advantage and demonstrates the politics that he's the dominant figure in the party. then start to worry if he's going to worry at all about those voters on the margins that he's going to need. >> he probably needs to because he's going to expand from 2020. so let me go to you and where the haley campaign would be coming at this from. there's lots of things that could happen. we were just talking how hillary clinton was behind by several points. she ended up winning by a couple points. we all remember that. but within a campaign as we all know, you're mapping out different options. you're mapping out we lose by 15. what do we do? we lose by 10. we win, what do we do? you stay in the race. what do you think those conversations are like in the haley campaign right now? >> well, if she does a decent job tonight, and by that i mean if she loses by less than 10, then her money will keep

flowing. i agree, but i would look at it differently. i think there's two republican parties right now. donald trump is the new republican party. and he is going to consolidate the base of the new republican party. and i think that's probably 60 to 70% of the people who call themselves republicans. but there's another 25 or 30% and that's the nikki haley party. and those are people many of whom have said clearly they will never vote for donald trump. those are the voters that joe biden needs to be looking at. he needs to find the haley voters tonight in new hampshire and model his campaign because for him to win in november, he's got to grab all the old republican party that is still within nikki haley from the new

republican party that is all donald trump and maga and all the things that so many of us find repugnant. it's time for the biden campaign to begin focusing not just on getting the base where they need to be, but i'm confident they. but really working on the voters that used to call themselves republican but don't anymore. >> the rnc is out with a statement that says, quote, the republican primary is up to the voters. we have never had a republican nominee who did not win at least iowa or new hampshire. president trump comes out strong tonight, that' a clears message beinse from our primary voters. another message we're hearing is unity from president trump, governor ron desantis and nator scott. republicans know if we're not united as a party behind our nominee, we won't be able to beat biden that's why we had our candidates sign the beat biden pledge to be on our debate stage. the point is they are basically saying trump is the presumptive nominee. nikki haley is up against that.

we have seen that come from the party committee chairman. we have seen a number of surrogates here in state. what do you do with that if you're nikki haley and in the haley campaign? >> you ignore it. not very many voters care what the rnc says. i think you ignore it. those are all the party hacks. yes, they are for donald trump. he controls the party. he controls the money. i'm out here fighting for the values that you care about, not the values necessarily of donald trump. now she started too late going after him. she thought she could beat him by hanging around. but keep in mind, those people who dropped out so far only chris christie was in her party. vivek ramaswamy and desantis were just mini mes of trump. they were clearly in the trump party. not the nikki haley party. the rnc is the trump party. that's where they are going to be. they are going to put out things like that, but frankly, i'm not

aware of anybody in america who cares what either the democratic national committee or the republican national committee say. >> i know. nobody is pressing refresh on their websites it turns out. we'll talk about that in terms of what nikki haley should have done better. also when we come back, more from our team across new hampshire. jacob soboroff is at a polling location. why the granite state is unlike any other primary state he's covered. and we'll also unpack what voters could be feeling about donald trump if he becomes the party's nominee. plus teaming up with kamala harris on this election day. a big rally this hour in virginia. part of their nationwide tour hoping to fire up voters about the dangers of the growing restrictions os to abortion in this country. all those stories and more when msnbc special coverage of the new hampshire primary continues after this. we'll be right back. imary conti after this we'll be right back. will statest mr. marbles will receive everything he needs in perpetuity thanks to autoship

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have you decided who you are going to support on tuesday? >> i think i have. i think i'm a nikki haley supporter. >> when did you make your decision? >> in the last couple weeks. >> what put you over the edge? >> i certainly don't want trump back in the white house. i think he's a disaster. i think he brings chaos and a lot of negativity. he's a threat to our democracy. i think nikki has the right approach. i think she's a unifier. and i think she will bring rationality back to the white

house. >> whatever hope there is inside the nikki haley campaign right now that there really is a pathway to victory today, or something close enough to it to stay in the race, it rests on the shoulders of people like gary, who you just saw there. new hampshire voters starve for rationality. this week our colleague jacob soboroff returned to new hampshire and connected with voters he had come to know from elections past. see if what he had to say sounds familiar. >> as far as expenses? things get more expensive now. >> with warmer weather, dramatically shortening ice fishing season. >> this is the worst year i have seen it actually. it seems like it's getting worse every year. >> climate change? >> ps perhaps. yeah. very frustrating. >> reporter: michael told us he voted for trump in 2016. >> back when i called him a

spectacle. he continues to be a spectacle. >> then biden in 2020. >> i'm not too happy about that either. he hasn't done anything good for me. >> desantis is out. you don't love biden. you're faces with trump and haley. >> she seems to be a go getter. maybe it's time to give a new candidate a try. >> let's bring in jacob soboroff in new hampshire. he's been out talking to swing voters today. so first of all, tell us -- i love your african with friendship with michael. i hope you stay in touch with him. you text and things, i think. so tell us a little bit manufacture about the voters you're talking to in dairy. are you hearing similar things to what michael was telling you? >> reporter: michael, for me, is sort of emblematic of so many people i have met here over the years and along the way. he speaks his mind. he don't vote with one party

over another. he is part of this extra order process where you can show up in a place like here in dairy as an unaffiliated voter and by the time you're out of here actually unregister, change back to become unaffiliated. i was in durham earlier today talking to students. those guys showed to me some troubling signs for president biden. the reason that i say that is so many of them were there on the bus to participate on the democratic side of the ledger, but many of them didn't want to actually write in president biden's name. some of them said they wanted to write in cease-fire in favor of a cease-fire in gaza and against u.s. policy towards israel and the war with hamas. they also told me they would vote for some of the other candidates. it's a unique window and an interesting process that's so different from everywhere else. and this really is nothing like being here. and if i could, i just want to

introduce you to somebody. come on back. this is the town clerk here. here's the deal. we're live on msnbc. i'm curious. correct me if i'm wrong, one of the largest polling places in not only in new hampshire, but potentially the country, 20,000 people could be registered and participate. >> we are the largest in new hampshire. and honestly, new hampshire is what i pay attention to. >> reporter: they call it like it is in new hampshire. how many people have participated today? >> so we have had about 6,700 voters come through. expecting a big rush here at the end from now until 8:00 p.m. polls are open until 8:00. >> so we're talking about 30% of the overall total? >> yes. >> do you know how many have gone from unaffiliated to

republican? >> we won't know that until tomorrow. >> reporter: i would imagine it's a large number because i have been watching the change back station. people are going to change back a after switching. >> she has an important job so aisle going to let you get back. >> have a great night. >>. >> reporter: it's all part of the process. i mean this unique thing about being able to not attached to one party or another and then being able to switch back before you actually walk out of the door here. it's really awesome to see. >> it's really interesting. i met a couple voters today at a polling place in manchester who were registered and were changing so they could vote for nikki haley some of them in order to be opposed to donald trump. there were a range of people outside. it's a fascinating process here. let me ask about those people the you met on the bus. i have heard some of that as well. in terms of wanting to write in

cease-fire, were there other concerns for the border from a couple people? other topics that they were concerned about? >> reporter: democrats particularly, young democrats, the ones on the bus, had concerns about the viability of president biden as a candidate. whether or not he would his age, being the top thing that continued to come up, but also just relatablety to young people like the ones i was talking to on the bus in dairy. among older folks, i heard a lot of people say they are going to come in here today and write in his name and just on the process side of all that, it's going to be so interesting to watch because throughout the state, most of the polls close at 7:00. here they close at 8:00. this could be a bit of a slower count on the democratic side because they have to actually hand count those president biden votes. so i think we'll get from a

facility like this, a quicker return on the republican side because their machines where the bubbles are filled in and you the get the tabulations right away, but it could be a minute before we know exactly how many write-in votes the president gets tonight. >> something to watch. we'll be here until 2:00 a.m. thank you so much for your report. so we were talking a little bit during the break just about nikki haley. we don't know what's going to happen tonight, but there's some acknowledgment, even by her supporters, they wish she would have gone harder a little earlier. you did some reporting this morning. what is your view? >> i think over this whole weekend, talking to a lot of traditional new hampshire republicans, the chris sununu republicans who care about democracy, don't the idea of an autocrat being the nominee. any of those carnations.

the bob dole version. and they look at her and say overwhelmingly there's the sentiment of i wish the nikki haley we saw this weekend we had seen her a month ago or six months ago. that she wasn't necessarily as tough with trump as they would have liked. but she started to loosen up. there you started to see packed schedules where she was on the ground. she wasn't interacting with voters, buts she's starting to do that a bit. she decided to go after trump on this one issue. but that's not even about i the attacks as she seemed pathologically cautious. she's right when she says she's the insurgent. he's the dominant one. the trump party is the 60% party. she's the 30% party. but she's the insurgent. but she's not campaigned with the insurgent spirit. this is a place that values that. turning down the debate when she

could have reached a whole state who doesn't know her that well, not taking questions from voters, campaigning as if she was protecting a lead for many months, that would have naturally led her if she had been more spirited to go after trump more. it would have been she wouldn't have seemed so cautious. mike murphy, long time republican strategist, said that she let minded him of the old russian proverb. she's trying to wash the bear without getting its fur wet. a very apt one. that's how she's taken on trump. you can't wash the bear without getting the bear's fur wet. she was walking on egg shells through a lot of this. that's not a style of campaigning that new hampshire has rewarded. on the democratic or the republican side. >> people in new hampshire really want somebody to be a fighter. they like the insurgent. it's funny that trump surround ed himself with establishment republicans. let me ask this.

i'm a little sympathetic to some of the republican candidates who been running against trump. it's tricky. you're damned if you do, damned if you don't. chris christie went hard after tump. he ended up with net negative polling numbers. nikki haley watched a much more careful line. she's kind of the last survivor. so maybe she ran a good bit of that strategy. what should she have shifted earlier. what's your view? >> i'm just old fashioned about that. i don't think you beat somebody who has an incumbent status by ignoring them. you don't beat somebody who is winning by ignoring them. there's a reason negative campaigns are everywhere. it's because they work. everybody hates negative ad. st. they say quit running negative ads. i have news for everybody. they run them because they work. and i got to tell you. i also have to give a shout out to tina. i think everybody needs to remember when any of our folks

on the ground interview people like tina, she's running the election there. that is who trump wants you to believe is the deep state. he wants you to believe that tina is out there with some evil motive to try to deter people from having their voices heard. it is so ludicrous. tina and thousands of others like her across this country administer elections in the most fair and even handed way in the world. and i just wanted to do that buzz as i wp watched her talk, i knew how busy she was. and that's who trump wants to make an enemy to people in america and it makes me sick to my stomach. >> it's such an important point. and i met some maizing poll workers who had been working there. they play a central role. a big shoutout from all of us. >> i think you put your finger on something important.

if the party is a third of them love trump, a thid of themselves like trump, but might be suedable. you're not going to be the nominee with that kind of composition. you had to figure out it's really tricky. that thing of how do you someone said a year ago the way you have to deal with trump is praise trump before you bury him. that sounds good, but in practice, it's really hard to do. figuring out the messaging where you're like you get all those people who hate him, but in that middle third who bisically like to persuade that you're with them, but maybe his time has passed. >> feel like there's a russian proverb for it. we have to ask mike for it. on that note, happy birthday. >> happy birthday, heilemann.

>> there you go. i sang. just because you didn't want me to. >> i got claire to sing. let's do the whole thing. crank it out. >> no, no, no. >> i'm not joining because i want people to tune in after the break. president biden and vice president kamala harris are set to fire up a crowd in virginia. campaigning for abortion rights. we'll take you there next and look at why democrats say it's a top issue this year. stay with us. >> some of the biggest issues are around women's rights and what's been happening there. >> would you mind sharing? >> i did a write in for joe biden. >> why was it important to show up and write his name in today? >> i think he's been a great president. e in today >> i think he's been a great president.

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the love of his life. i'm a little biased, but take it from adam's little brother. he'll make us all proud as california senator. i'm adam schiff and i approve this message. not just any whiteboard... ...katie porter's whiteboard is one way she's: [news anchor] ...often seen grilling top executives of banks, big pharma, even top administration officials. katie porter. never taken corporate pac money - never will. leading the fight to ban congressional stock trading. and the only democrat who opposed wasteful “earmarks” that fund politicians' pet projects. katie porter. focused on your challenges - from lowering housing costs to fighting climate change. shake up the senate - with democrat katie porter. i'm katie porter and i approve this message. mara, are you sure you don't want -to go bowling with us tonight? -yeah. no. there's my little marzipan! [ laughs ] oh, my daughter gives the best hugs! we're just passing through on our way to the jazz jamboree. [ imitates trumpet playing ]

and we wanted to thank america's number-one motorcycle insurer -for saving us money. -thank you. [ laughs ] mara, your parents are -- exactly like me? i know, right? well, cherish your friends and loved ones. let's roll, daddio! let's boogie-woogie! we're looking at live pictures of the first campaign rally of 2024 for president biden and harris. he's showing up in force. the vice president, first lady, dr. biden, and the second gentleman are all with him this hour. the topic they are focused on is quite telling. abortion rights. just a few months ago, the governor promised to pass an abortion ban if republicans took control of the legislature. that promise helped democrats take back the state house this past november.

the biden campaign is hoping that abortion rights will be an issue that propels voters to the polls this november and at least 12 states will have ballot initiatives on abortion access, which also means that people who may not be excited about voting might get themselves out to vote. this is all a part of a series of events by a campaign emphasizing the critical fight to regain access centered around the roe v. wade decision yesterday. joining our conversation is the president of reproductive freedom for all. claire is also back with us. so i know you have the vice president speaking behind you, but we're so excited to hear your thoughts. to me, it's a pretty strong signal about the importance of abortion rights this year that this is how they are starting. this big yuan if ied event with these four big players of the biden administration. talk to us about the impact of that as well as these ballot initiatives and how powerful they could be in your view.

>> this is such an important way to start this campaign. you talked about glenn youngkin. no one did it better than virginia democrats. they took the millions of dollars youngkin spent and he was really trying to stake out that moderate middle ground for the gop on abortion. they repudiated. they put it to bed. and for the president and the vice president to draw this incredibly clear contrast, it says restore roe. what they will do vs. what dth@has been bragging about doing, it's an incredibly powerful message. the ballot initiaive strategy feeds into this really well. but it's important to know in states the ballot strategy is attracting republicans and independents as well and that's something that i think is up for grabs for biden and harris. >> you ran in missouri, you won in missouri, you have been in the politics for a long time. abortion was a wedge issue, not that long ago.

it's clearly not given where polls are and whatmyny just mentioned. republicans and independents. talk to us about how important this is issue and how much you think it should be a part of candidates' campaign message and their stump speeches in the next ten months. >> this is an issue where the vast majority of americans agreed with roe. they were comfortable with restriction around viability. but they ls also feel very strongly about reproductive freedom. and by the way, this is where biden can make up ground. he can make up ground with independent voters. he can make up ground with suburban women and make up ground with republican voter who is feel strongly about this. there's a wide swath that do. this is a smart strategy the. they basically the dog caught the bus. now the bus is in the process of running over the dog because america is not going to put up

with women going back 50 years in terms of their freedoms. my state is going to have an ip on the ballot. hopefully they are gathering signatures now that would also return to a viability standard. i think that is a very much in the majority and i think it will help joe biden. it's smart to open the campaign this way. >> i love the bus running back over the dog. i have never heard that part of the analogy. i'm going to steal that from you many of the questions is how do you message about this in the most powerful way. doing this campaign event is good one. these personal stories are so powerful. i spoke yesterday with a texas ob/gyn who is featured in an ad yesterday. she's talking about her own personal experience and kind of the impact on her. think the personal stories are going to be a big part of kind of reaching out to voters and reaching out to women. what do you think about the importance of that as kind of the leading message here.

>> these abortion bans are in place in these 21 states, the more and more of these horror stories are coming out and penetrating in the public consciousness. the longer the bans are in effect, the more stories we're going to have. it makes every american feel like they know somebody who has been impacted. and they do. this issue has been in the shadows for so long and stigmatized for so long. it's so powerful to have these women share these stories. amanda is about to join the stage. it's a really smart strategy. but it's also core to the joe biden those. we need to hear more empathy from it our leaders. it's a winning message. and it's authentic. >> absolutely. i just think the personal stories over data is so important for people to remember. let me go back to claire. last week, your home state of missouri launched a ballot

initiative. i mentioned them at the top. they launched one around abortion rights. they raised over a million dollars in the first 24 hours. again, it's just one of 12 states where abortion will appear on the ballot. how possible is that in missouri and a number o the states on the map now that many of which are key for president biden? >> don't get me wrong. this is going to be ebs pensive. it's going to take $5 million to gather the signatures to get it on the ballot. the opponents are going to come misrepresenting what this does. they are going to say it's about making late term abortions prevalent in missouri, which is just not true. so it's a battle. i think it's a battle that can be won. polling shows it can be won. if it can win in missouri, it can win anywhere because we have the most extreme laws in the country. no exceptions for rape or incest, most missourians don't even know how extreme our laws

are. that's one thing that will happen in the campaign. they will realize how limited people's rights are in missouri. and missourians don't like the government telling them what to do. especially when it comes to a personal decision like reproductive health. >> this is certainly the government telling you what to do. on a pretty personal level. claire, thank you so much for hanging with me this hour. i enjoyed speaking with you. coming up next, we'll break from new hampshire for just a moment. a legal loss for the ex-president in the election interference case. some breaking news that happened this afternoon. we'll bring that back to you next. we'll bring that back to you next

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in a pretty big blow to former president donald trump this afternoon, the d.c. circuit court of appeals has denied his request to rehear his appeal of the gag order imboysed on him by judge tanya chutkan in the federal election interference case. the appeal was automatically denied after not a single judge requested a vote on trump's motion. his only hope is to appeal to the supreme court. we're waiting to hear from that appeals court on trump's claim of presidential immunity on that case as well. former top official with the justice department, msnbc legal analyst andrew weissman. i wanted to start with the fact that not a single judge requested a vote, which feels to a nonlawyer like me significant. what does that tell you about

the weakness of the case, about trump's clear potential desire to try to get the supreme court to take this case up? >> sure, well, this -- having just watched you and clare, this might be the legal equivalent to her analogy to the bus and the dog. >> keep it going. >> this is basically -- he lost the first time around by a panel of d.c. judges, three judges. and as is his right, he asked whether the full court of 11 full-time sitting judges would hear it, and they said no. the fact that not one of the judges asked for a vote to record how the vote went doesn't necessarily mean that it was unanimous. but it definitely is a sign of the weakness of the case. it could be that one of those judges who didn't necessarily

agree with the decision understood that there were not enough votes and there was no reason to have a vote. it also could be because of their concern about security. it's very well known that judge chutkan has been threatened, and in fact, someone has been charged with threatening her life. and so there was no need to name names and for them to all stand together. but it isn't a good sign for donald trump that there wasn't anybody who was willing to say, we disagree with this, we want a vote, we do want people to put their names to it. and, you know, i don't think that this is one where the supreme court's going to hear it. they have enough on their plate coming from donald trump. they're about to have oral argument on february 8th in connection with the colorado case about whether he's qualified or not qualified to appear on the colorado ballot. >> i mean, they had to have a

full docket, fair to say, of trump things. i never thought of the concern of threat. given the rise in swatting against people in the judiciary, that certainly makes sense. interesting point. well, while we have you, the immunity case. we're still waiting, also, for a ruling from this same court. do we have any sense of when that might come or what we can expect on that front? >> well -- you know, mary and i in our podcast have actually said we thought it would have come out by now. >> yeah. >> no one knows when it's going to come out. but, you know, our betting is that it's any day now. remember, they, like the supreme court, they have expedited hearing on this case. because the judicial system is trying to sort of catch up and be giving decisions in realtime, understanding that there's sort of a unique threat posed by donald trump on so many different fronts. there's so many legal issues

that he is sort of throwing out. whether it's the colorado case, whether it's immunity, whether it's a gag order. and so they expedited hearing this case. so it's hard to imagine that they expedited hearing the case, had briefs coming in over the christmas and new year holidays, and then they're going to sit on this. if i had to guess as to why it's taken a couple of weeks, it's because it's not one judge who is ruling, it's three. that means that there's coordination. they may be wanting to make sure that they can reach unanimity on certain issues. so that, i think, is a factor that people should take into account. >> well, we'll all be waiting. it doesn't work this way, but they wanted to bury it, the night of the new hampshire primary might be an interesting one. that's not how the process works. >> it doesn't. >> thank you as always for joining us this afternoon. much more to come in manchester. the final polls close in new hampshire in about three hours. coming up, our first snapshot of

what was on vvoters' minds toda as they went to vote. steve kornacki with the first exit polling of the night. ood d, behave yourself. like she goes to work at three in the afternoon and sometimes gets off at midnight. she works a lot, a whole lot. we don't get to eat in the early morning. we just wait till we get to the school. so, yeah. right now here in america, millions of kids like victoria and andre live with hunger, and the need to help them has never been greater. when you join your friends, neighbors and me to support no kid hungry, you'll help hungry kids get the food they need. if we want to take care of our children, then we have to feed them. your gift of just $0.63 a day, only $19 a month at helpnokidhungry.org right now will help provide healthy meals and hope. we want our children

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in helping hungry kids or go online to henodhungry.org and help feed hungry kids today. you may know adam schiff's work in helping hungry kids or go online to to protect the rule of law, or to build affordable housing, or write california's patients bill of rights. but i know adam through the big brother program. we've been brothers since i was seven. he stood by my side as i graduated from yale, and i stood by his side when he married eve, the love of his life. i'm a little biased, but take it from adam's little brother. he'll make us all proud as california senator. i'm adam schiff and i approve this message. not just any whiteboard... ...katie porter's whiteboard is one way she's: [news anchor] ...often seen grilling top executives of banks, big pharma, even top administration officials. katie porter. never taken corporate pac money - never will. leading the fight to ban congressional stock trading. and the only democrat who opposed wasteful “earmarks” that fund politicians' pet projects. katie porter. focused on your challenges -

from lowering housing costs to fighting climate change. shake up the senate - with democrat katie porter. i'm katie porter and i approve this message. ♪♪ hi again, everyone. i'm jen psaki. it's 5:00 in new hampshire as we continue msnbc's special coverage of the first in the nation primary. final polls close statewide in three hours as the last remaining challenger to donald

trump for the republican presidential nomination, nikki haley, is hoping for an upset. following the ex-president's overwhelming victory in iowa, new hampshire's primary could be the last stand before he becomes the presumptive nominee, something that has never happened this early in an election cycle when the candidate is not a sitting president. when haley pulls off a win tonight or comes close, it would give her a real sense of momentum behinding into the primary in her home state of south carolina, a state where she's significantly behind donald trump. if trump is victorious, the pressure on her to drop out will intensify. haley, who has said she will not drop out even if she does not win tonight, needs a strong showing. you never say you're going to drop out until you drop out, we'll see. new hampshire could be her best bet, a state with a streak of independence. "live free or die" is the motto where undeclared voters make up the biggest segment of the electorate. today voters have been showing

up all across the state. new hampshire's secretary of state is predicting over 300,000 votes will be cast in the republican primary. an increase from the 287,000 cast in 2016. so here's a taste of new hampshire republican voters that i got a chance to speak with today. >> i voted for donald trump. working was a bit difficult, to get a job, find a new job. i was comparing that to when donald trump was in office. i'm not going to say he did everything perfectly, because things were still bad. >> i voted for nikki haley. >> sounds like it was an anti-trump vote? >> yes. i just didn't want a president that seemed like we would have more problems than we would not have problems. >> the haley coalition could be interesting, depending how she does stand. we'll talk about that in a moment. results from exit polls soon. steve kornacki will go through them as well. first, we head to our reporters on the ground.

we're going to go to shack brewster and dasha burns in nashua. shack, you've been talking to voters all day, all week. what are they telling you? i heard one of the people said dicesville notch helped them cast their vote for nikki haley. what else are you hearing today? >> look, i am very shocked i've been surprised how many voters told they they were undecided even this morning. one person saying he went on facebook, saw news about the stock market, and that is how he made his decision. another said that when they got into the voting booth, that is when they ultimately decided which way they were going to go. of course, it gives you a sense of why you have both campaigns really pounding the pavement up to the last minute, really. you saw donald trump, for example, today appear at a voting location outside, meeting with supporters. nikki haley having events up until yesterday. one thing that we really have

been hearing is that these voters have been paying attention. they know who's there. one person said they were planning on voting for ron desantis until sunday, then had to scramble and do research all over again to figure out who they were going to support. listen to a bit of some of my conversations with voters throughout the course of the day. >> i don't think mr. trump is perfect, but i think he's more able to influence people. >> i like trump. i voted for him the first time. and the second time. and i wouldn't mind. he did good things when he was there. but his attitude and his verbal talk is what kind of -- >> that's why you voted for haley? >> yeah. >> anything but trump. >> that was your priority? >> that's my priority. >> is that the biggest reason you supported nikki haley? >> yeah, i'd say. >> because of donald trump? >> yes, yeah. and i have no problem with

ladies running things. i have one here. >> of course, he's pointing to his wife in that last interview there. >> yes. >> very funny. >> no problem with ladies running things. >> as he stares at his wife. you could tell they've been talking about that for some time. >> they may have a conversation in the car, we'll see. >> those undeclared or independent voters who can pick up whichever ballot they decide to choose, they come in, they go and check in, show their i.d. the clerk says, "do you want the democratic ballot or republican ballot?" that could shift things. that is something nikki haley has been trying to build her coalition around, leaning in on getting independents to show up to the polls. we'll see in a couple of hours, how much that worked. >> shack, we'll keep hearing from you. dasha, you've been cover

knowledge desantis, nikki haley, you're at nashua high school. tell us what you've been hearing from voters, what you're expecting over the next few hours? >> we've been bouncing around a couple of different polling locations that are all pretty bellwether places. places that reflected in 2016 the statewide outcome, which trump won by about 34%. which means in these areas, like where i am in nashua, i was in goss town earlier today, these aren't hard might have core maga. a lot of folks in '16 voted for rubio, bush, the like. so these are the places where she has some opportunity but where she really needs to run up her margin. she needs to be getting 50, 51% or so in places like this if she wants to slow or stop trump's march to the nomination. what's complicated are all of these fak torts tors at play. these undeclared voters, like

shaq said, can take a democratic or republican ballot. i've met people who decided to vote for haley for similar reasons to what you heard from shaq, mostly anti-trump votes. salesmen some undeclared who decided to participate in the democratic write-in campaign for joe biden. take a listen. would you be willing to share who you cast your ballot for? >> nikki haley. >> why? >> she's strong on foreign affairs, i think she's a strong conservative. >> why not donald trump? >> because, as she says, chaos follows him. whether it's right or wrong. and i think that we're ready to move on. >> if he becomes the nominee, would you vote for him in the general? >> i will. >> your plan is to write in joe biden? >> yes. >> what's the message you want to send with that? >> i just think that -- i don't know, i just think that it's important because he's probably the only one that stands a chance at possibly winning the election over trump. but i honestly think it might go

the other way, unfortunately. >> reporter: another conversation i had that really struck me, to shaq's point, how late some people are making this decision -- a gentleman told me he walked in this morning initially thinking he was going to vote for nikki haley, then at last minute changed his vote for trump because he thought about it and he felt like the primary was basically over. he felt like trump was going to be the candidate, so he wanted to just vote for the guy that was going to inwin. there is a sense of inevitability among voters, and that to me is a really steep hurdle for nikki haley to have to climb today. >> it's so interesting to hear what voters are consuming from speeches and ads, like the chaos line that was in one of those clips, and the inevitability argument, that voter you spoke to, so interesting. shaq and dasha, thank you. i know you're doing lots of recording. talk to you later this evening. let's bring in our panel here.

for "the bulwark," tim miller. cornell belcher. in manchester, "new york times," national political correspondent lisa lear, professor in department of politics here in new hampshire, christopher gal galiari. you've watched about these, written about new hampshire primaries and politics. what this year feels the same what feels different? >> what feels different, it seems to be happening in a slower gear. fewer candidates, fewer events. we didn't have debates in the last week. trump has only been here, commuting from his trials to give rallies in the evenings and on the weekends. haley seemed to be going slowly last week. there's less of the electricity in the air that you're used to feeling the weekend before primary day. >> it's interesting, lisa, nikki haley's coalition, it feels like

it's a combination. there are democrats voting for her in the primary. what does a good coalition look like for her here? >> what she really needs is a courage in independent voters or undeclared to turn out to the polls and cast ballots. i think what you're identifying is really true. sure, people like nikki haley. but this is really an anti-trump coalition. and what we've seen throughout the years is that coalition does not hold a majority place in the republican party. the question is whether the unique dynamics of this state, where independent voters are about 40% of the electorate, change that allow her to perhaps get a win, which people here seem to think is unlikely, which would allow her to get momentum and really make a case for herself to stay in this race. >> it's going to be so interesting. a person who knows a lot about

these coalitions and numbers and data, steve kornacki. our first look at exit polling. that may tell us interesting things. >> we're getting, keep in mind, this is the first wave. they'll come in increments. voting taking place for a few hours more in new hampshire. what we're starting to get is a glimpse at what the electorate looks like today. we've talked so much about the role of independent voters or the potential role of independent voters in this race. i want to show you, we're asking how folks identify. this is not their actual on-the-record party registration, we don't have access to that. do you identify as a republican, a democrat, or identify as an independent? here's what we found in this exit poll so far. i think this jumps right at you. a minority of voters in this first wave of the exit poll in

the republican primary identify as republicans. a majority, 53%, identify as either independent -- 45% -- or, and this is a high number historically, 8% identify as democrats. for some context, in 2016, the last competitive republican primary, presidential primary in new hampshire, the electorate was 55% republican. it was 42% independent. and it was 3% democrat. so in this initial wave, you're seeing significant differences from 2016. one other item i want to point your attention to here is ideology. we asked folks, first wave, again. are you somewhat conservative? very conservative? moderate? liberal? take a look here. the moderate number checks in at 31%. the liberal number 6%.

by comparison -- that's a total. 37% in this exist poll are identifying themselves, in a republican party primary, as identifying themselves as moderate or liberal. the combined number eight years ago, last competitive republican primary in new hampshire, was 29%. so this electorate, 8 percentage points more moderate and liberal, at least in this first wave of the exit polling, than eight years ago. also, the very conservative number was 26% eight years ago. it sits at 24% here. that's a more modest difference. in this initial wave, what you're seeing is a lot of independents and a lot of folks who think of themselves as democrats. again, they're not actually registered democrats right now. if they were, they couldn't participate in this primary. but they think of themselves as democrats. that number, 8%, is very, very

high. historically, in the new hampshire republican primary, you're not going to see a number like that. the combination right now in this first wave is majority nonrepublican. first wave, we're going to add more waves, that's a baseline at 5:00. we'll see how that turns out. polls close, most of the state, 7:00 p.m. eastern. >> we haven't seen any of the votes counted yet. the polls are still open. people are voting. we were taco litigations. and that makeup seems to be a good sign for nikki haley, given those are more the type of people who would potentially vet for her, looking at demographics or past polling? >> yeah, you know, we've known all week, and i think the haley campaign has made little secret of they are relying in new hampshire, disproportionately, on independent voters. on nonrepublican voters. on getting as many of them out,

getting as big a share of them as they can. the question of what share she's getting is one that we will find out later, talk about later. we still need to see if this exit poll, and ultimately as results start coming in at 7:00. but certainly on paper, we gist talked about all week, is the independent turnout going to be higher, lower than 2016? folks who think of themselves as democrats participating in this in meaningful numbers? are they going to be on the democratic side doing the biden write-in campaign? i stress, it's the initial wave. there will be more exit poll data to come in the ensuing hours, and the votes at 7:00. the initial wave shows you a composition of this new hampshire republican electorate that's a little different, that's a lot different than we've seen before. >> yeah, that's so interesting. we'll look forward as that comes in as well.

thank you, we'll see you throughout the night tonight. so those numbers are interesting. let me bring tim and cornell into this conversation, too, just to kind of talk to them a little bit about what that composition -- there we are, tim and cornell. tim, we can't get too ahead of ourselves in terms of what that means. it as higher percentage of people who are democrats, it seems, a higher or more solid percentage of independents. what is your assessment? what's your gut on what that means? >> well, i think it's modestly encouraging for nikki haley. i think there are things we know. we know that there is a significant percentage of democratic-leaning voters in new hampshire who are considering strategically voting for nikki haley, but really, more like against trump in order to save our democracy. we know that because our reporters talked to them in the field. at "the bulwark" we talk to new hampshire voters. one guy who cited listening to

david plouffe on msnbc talk about how maybe it made sense to cross over and vote against -- vote for nikki haley against donald trump because of the threat to democracy. it goes without saying, that's not a typical republican primary voter, somebody that's listening to obama's former campaign manager's advice. those people exist. new hampshire is a special place because they exist. there's questions about the sustainability of that type of coalition, but it's noteworthy and now we know at least some percentage told exit pollsters that they went and did their -- i think mr. final point is, good on them. a lot of times, we talk about polarization, democrats, some democrats are secretly rooting for trump, republicans make that accusation. i think it's cool that there's some new hampshire democrats, that nikki haley's not their cup of tea, but they're doing it because they think it's right for the country. that's a little happy news for democracy on the evening. >> tim, you're sometimes dark,

so i'm happy that you're having a moment of light now. it feels good. i actually spoke to a voter. a young voter who said to me, i'm voting for nikki haley because i've heard that it may help if i do that. help defeat donald trump. it's like, maybe he heard from the unofficial surrogate, david plouffe, as well. we don't know. he didn't mention him. cornell, you're an actual pollster, unlike the rest of us. when you look at these numbers and kind of the makeup of the coedition, there could be democrats helping nikki haley get across the finish line, could be independents. by finish line, finish better than the polls are saying. what is your assessment of what you heard? >> a couple of things, context. first of all, we should, again, we should context it. early exit, caution. early exit polling, caution, caution, caution. >> important. caution, caution, caution, yes. >> right, on early exit polling. if you're the haley campaign, to

that point, you are i think -- you are emboldened. also, this is what makes new hampshire primaries so difficult to forecast. because lodge, you do have the ability for people to come in and out of a primary who are not necessarily likely primary voters. i think you have 16% from the early exit poll -- caution -- 16% of these voters voting in a primary who say they haven't voted in a primary before. so a lot of the predictions about what happens in new hampshire and polling in new hampshire is so incredibly difficult, because it's hard to nail what a likely voting universe looks like because you have this fluidity of who can vote, who can't vote. new hampshire's also a place where you can get surprises. now, the question is, what will get a surprise tonight? i think if this trend continues where she is actually doing better with independent voters,

which -- how much better with independent voters is she doing? she may have a chance to actually come in closer in this election than a lot of us have predicted simply because the dynamics and who's turning out, who's the likely universe in this election, is changing. to my friend's last point, i don't know how sustainable this is. in the rest of the states you don't have open primaries where democrats and independents can cast anti-trump votes. >> this is what makes it so interesting. we're going to keep this conversation. everybody hold thoughts. we'll have much more after a quick leak break. what nikki haley needs to do as voting continues across the granite state. how democrats are using a unique and untested and difficult write-in campaign to boost president biden here tonight.

if the twice-impeached, four lifetimes-indicted candidate emerges victorious? our special coverage of the new hampshire primary continues.

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we were talking about exit poll numbers. with caveats, it's still interesting to hear the early data on what this group of people voting today could look like. we've been talking about the feeling you get in the air when something is going to happen, right? or there's going to be a shift in change, which was very imperfect and inexact. you've been around for a lot of these. what has the last week felt like to you? >> it's felt quiet. it has not had the same charge in the air when somebody is really coming on strong. where something is really happening. bernie sanders in 2016. john mccain in 2008 and 2000. this has felt very quiet, low-key. but that might actually be working in haley's favor. it might be the fact that people have been writing her off for days, triggering that instinct a lot of new hampshire voters have, maybe we'll upset the conventional wisdom this year. >> it's hard to measure, which makes it interesting. so hard to predict. i think a big question going into tonight, the latest

tracking poll this morning had haley down 22 points. we saw the memo today. chris sununu says, she loses by 19, of course she should stay in. there's conversations going on in a campaign right now. so what do you think? what does she have to do in order to stay in and really justify campaigning through to south carolina? >> ideally, she has to win. but i think the feeling you get, as you were saying, that feels unlikely when i talk to stra strategists. there's conversation about whether she peaked too early. is she not hitting the moment right? assuming she does not win, she has to be a close second. even then, there are real questions, as cornell and tim were saying in the previous panel, about her durability. what is the path forward? she is cobbling together a coalition that is based on people -- independents, maybe even democrats who cross lines -- those are not people who are voting in a republican

primary in most other states. so if she can't win enough support from actual republicans, it's really hard to see how you go on to capture the republican nomination. now, how that plays out is whether donors will keep giving her money to keep doing this, if they feel this isn't going anywhere. the money's going to turn off, then you have a real problem. >> we're just in the process. obviously, if trump, if it's a blowout, he's going to make the case that this is what's happening, it's over. but there's a lot to happen roo from here, potentially, depending on the outcome. so tim, let's talk a little bit about trump voters. because i think sometimes it's a misunderstood group of people. if you look at the data so far, even in new hampshire, he's winning, according to polls, people under 50. he's winning working-class voters. he's winning a lot of huge demographic groups. you've been following him. you've been to a lot of states. what do you think people are

most miscalculating, misunderstanding? you can say specifically democrats maybe misunderstanding about trump's following in the republican electorate? >> i think a lot of it is, we've been boiling in trumpian frog water for so long, you don't realize what's happening around you. it's been nine years. it's been eight years. so the types of people that are opting in to a republican primary as a republican -- not the strategic democrats we talked about, but the republicans who are excited to vote in a republican primary, trump what is they know. trump what is they're excited about. a lot of the types of people that are turned off by trump have opted out of the republican process. a lot of them voted in 2020 for pete or amy in the democratic primary. your college-educated suburban voters. surprisingly, trump is doing well with -- like in iowa, for example, in the suburbs. well, that's not because suburban vote has totally pivoted, they're moving to trump. it's because the remaining suburban republicans are still there because they like him.

he's been there for eight years, and that's -- i think that's true also of young voters. trump did very well with young voters in the polls. again, democrats missed this. if you're 25 and you're opting in to be a republican right now, you were 11 when mitt romney was running in 2012, you don't know anything else. so i think that's why trump's doing so well. kind of across demos within the republican coalition. >> it's so important to understand this, i think. i actually talked to a voter today in manchester who was a first-time voter, never voted before, obviously. voting for trump because, in his view, the economy was better under trump. he was young in college. so it's kind of right in the pool of people you're talking about. cornell, let me ask you a little bit about how president biden's team might be looking at this. because if you look at nikki haley's voters, some of them are democrats, some of them will tell you they're voting for nikki haley but support joe biden. those are the most obvious targets, clearly. also the group of people,

looking at "the washington post" poll which i know stuck out to the biden campaign team, 81%, i believe, of nikki haley's supporters believe that joe biden was ledge jaelt elected in 2020. to them, that's a ripe target. do you think the nikki haley voters here -- the bar is low at this point, but it's important. do you think those nikki haley voters, the people voting for her, if there's a blowout, are good, ripe targets for the biden campaign? >> i do. but, you know, let's talk campaigns. it comes down to resources. and, you know, what target group are you going to take off of the current biden target table to put republican haley voters on that table and spend resources toward them? one of the things that boggles my mind so often that i hear, i hear our friends talk about, how do we go after republican voters and trump voters and this and that. i look back and go, well, my

god, the last three times someone's got to a majority in this country, it's been a democrat building a democrat coalition. barack obama got back-to-back majorities. last time around, biden got a majority. won by 7 million votes. it was more voter turnout than we've seen turn out before. no, i don't give a damn about republican voters. how about i care more about the obama/biden coalition and us winning and bringing back all those voters to joe biden. i don't mean to sound crass. i'm just being completely strategic. from a resource standpoint. >> you're not being crass at all. >> i know all about building back that coalition, not bringing in more republican voters. on the republican side, they should be asking, how do we get some of these democratic voters? not the other way around. democrats are garnering a majority. >> to your point, joe biden won

7 million more votes than donald trump four years ago. so that's an important point for people to remember. the coalition-building, it's a tricky one, right? can you rebuild the obama coalition without obama? i'm sure we'll be discussing this a lot more. thank you both for spending time, appreciate it. when we return, president biden is on the ballot here in new hampshire, but that's not stopping a group of grassroots democrats from trying to write him a big write-in victory tonight. we'll talk to the former campaign manager of the biden re-election campaign after a quick break. did you know... 80% of women are struggling with hair damage? just like i was. dryness and frizz could be damaged hair that can't retain moisture. new pantene miracle rescue deep conditioner, with first-of-its-kind melting pro-v pearls...

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new hampshire has long prided itself on being the first in the nation primary for both republicans and democrats. this year, democrats decided to shake t up with their primarychule to better align with the calendar with the electorate, opting to let south carolina be the first to vote instead of iowa or new hampshire. the democrats in the granite state had a different idea written into their constitution. they decided they're going to go first anyway. voters won't see president biden's name on the ballot today, they'll see his primary challengers and a space to write in his name. if president biden wins this symbolic primary today, it will be because of a write-in

campaign led by graroots democrats. not easy. here's how msnbc described that campai "president biden's allies are nowinghat has to be one of the most unusual campaigns in american presidential history, a write-in campaign with a shoestring budget on behalf of the most powerful man in the world," no pressure, "trying to help him win a contest in which he is not technically competing and one which he'd rather see not even exist." quite an assignment, fair to say. mike memoli, you've been covering this closely. that is quite a description and a setup. give us a sense of the write-in campaign, how it's going. it's grassroots run, so what's going on across the state about this write-in campaign the last couple of days? >> well, jen, the word that has been used most often to describe this write-in effort is "weird." when the filing period for the ballot here closed in late october, this write-in campaign

didn't exist, the paperwork hadn't been filed. they've had less than three months to raise money to try to get an organization together and then to try to use that organization to reach voters across the state. fast forward now. we spent most of the last three days at house parties, sign-wavings, grassroots trainings this write-in was doing. the organizers felt very good that they had pulled this together in just enough time, a campaign without a candidate. a candidate, the president of the united states, who hasn't visited new hampshire since april 2022. i talked to a voter here at this ward, which is one of the more dem-heavy wards in the state, who complained she was getting too much mail from the write-in campaign. will that translate to success here for the president tonight? when you talk to everyone, whether involved or whether a critic of the president and the party, if they're upset about the decision he made to elevate south carolina, they really can't give you a number what they think is successful for him. so we need to look at history. it's 1968.

president johnson wasn't on the ballot. eugene mccarthy was running an anti-war campaign. he came within 6 to 8 points of lyndon johnson. that was seen as a big blow to him and president johnson bowed out, decided not to seek a second term, a few weeks later. that's kind of the informal number you get in terms of what looks like success for him. but i think a lot of that will depend on what we see on the republican side. if we are counting votes and watching the margin between a trump and haley late tonight, maybe we're not paying as close attention to what that write-in number is. we'll have to wait another hour or so for our first clues. >> i think the biden campaign would be thrilled if people aren't paying attention. a couple of democrats have told me, 50 plus 1, it's fine. dean philipps is, i believe he said today, it's the best day of his life or some version of that. at least he's having a good time. what is he hoping for tonight?

>> i interviewed him, he said that if he got in the 20% range, that would be tremendous, was his word. but it's also been interesting, as he's been campaigning across the state here, that he's also been sort of ruling out but then opening the door at the same time to a possible third party run. maybe he would join a no-labels effort if this primary challenge is unsuccessful. so as i talk to other democrats, they say if he was running about issues, if he was talking about his vision for the country, why he would be a better president than joe biden, then maybe he would be getting a little more traction. so much of his argument has been about process, what the dnc did, president president's age and other liabilities, not something democrats want to hear about. when i described to one of the supporters of the write-in effort that dean fill loms told me he was going to wage this campaign to the convention in chicago, she responded that he's dreaming. that's a sense of how they view it here. >> oh, okay. sick burn from the supporter.

mike memoli, thank you for spend is time. we'll talk to you later this even. jim messina, campaign manager for obama's 2012 re-election campaign, my former boss, political 1 der kid, no pressure, jim. new hampshire's traditionally a swing state. the president is 7 points ahead of donald trump right now in the recent polls. nikki haley's beating him in the recent polls, whatever that means in new hampshire. he's not on the ballot. they're not really acknowledging the grassroots write-in campaign. it's run by the grassroots. what does a win for the president coming out of tonight look like? >> well, look. first of all, i think it's super cool that these folks are organizing on their own. that's what you and i as democrats, it's exciting. the fact that they're doing this, no paid staff. they're doing their own thing. i love that people are already complaining they're getting too many pieces of mail from a campaign with no money. that is just bizarre to me. but super fun. look. what joe biden and the biden campaign need, as dean philipps

not having any momentum, and dean phillips is not going to have momentum. he's been running for months. he's running in single digits. he's about to get trounced by a guy not on the ballot. a couple of weeks ago, he had a rally that literally no one attended. zero peep attended. he couldn't even get his mom to go to the rally. so the fact is this campaign is over and the democrats are just going to watch to see the more important stuff of what comes out of the republican primary tonight. >> maybe his mom wasn't available, to be fair. i hear your point. i hear what you're saying. let's talk about the general election for a second. we could be -- we don't know what the outcome is tonight but we could be close to that. axios this morning on what many democrats may want to see out of new hampshire, "donald trump wants a big win in new hampshire on tuesday to effectively end the gop presidential primary. many democrats are rooting for the same thing. president biden's team believes trumping the presumptive nominee for president would give a much-needed jolt of energy to

voters and grassroots donors who don't want to see trump back in the white house." this is very consistent with what i've heard from the biden campaign that one of their challenges and frustrations right now is the percentage of people who don't believe that trump is going to be the nominee, and if it becomes clear, that's good for them. but what's your thought? >> jen, you heard me say this to barack obama several times. if it's a choice -- if it's a referendum on the incumbent, usually the incumbent loses from there it's a choice between the campaigns, usually the incumbent wins. the best choice, the best difference, is with donald trump. donald trump gives you something the other republican candidates don't give you, which is two things. number one, he's helpfully running around the country, bragging that he got rid of roe v. wade. >> oh -- >> which motivates people on the democratic side.

we've had massive turnout in recent elections since donald trump's come to power because he's such a motivating factor for democrats. just as a sheer contrast, if you're a campaign manager for the president of the united states, donald trump just gives you those things that no one else gives you. >> yeah, he's quite a foil for the biden team, fair to say. they've run against him before. jim mussina, thank you for spending time. we need to fit in a quick break. we'll be back with our panel in new hampshire after this.

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new hampshire. with us, "washington post" political columnist sharon tumulty. karen, i need to get your text you've been sending to voters. lisa, you were part of a team that broke significant news about the briden campaign? >> we just broke that jen o'mally dylan, a major player in the white house, is going to come over and help with the campaign operations. this is certainly showing that they're shifting to the general election, that they're starting to get much more in election mode. it's also sort of a response in some ways, maybe implicitly, to a lot of criticism that we've all been hearing from democrats over the past six months or a year that really run the gamut.

concerns about the messaging, whether focusing too much on democracy and trump and not enough on the economy and what biden has done, abortion, other issues. concerns about staffing. some reporting president biden -- that president obama has weighed in with concerns. this is the sign the biden team is moving into re-election mode and dump more resources into this campaign. >> jen o'mally dylan, she ran the campaign, the last campaign in 2020, where joe biden defeated donald trump. she's been the deputy chief of staff in the white house for the last couple of years. and she was the one who was brought in as campaign manager when they really needed to take the campaign and shape it up and get it in the shape it needed to be for a general election campaign. she really did a remarkable job. >> her superpower, everybody has a superpower, is field organizing. and really organizing state by state and all that data and turnout numbers that you really

need to inspire voters and inspire grassroots campaigns to move forward. that's a very interesting development. i know you've had help on it. you're part of the team, very important. >> also, you know, what it really also indicates is how weak they are with their coalition. you're bringing in someone who specializes in-field at a time when there's clear problems the biden campaign has with young voters, liberal voters, that need to be fixed. >> talking about this, one of the things they see as opportunity is trump being the nominee. >> yeah, for sure. >> they feel very strongly, we'll see if this plays out and it may, that once it's clear that trump is the nominee, if trump becomes the nominee that will help them because people will wake up to it's clear that if trump becomes the nominee, that will help them because people will wake up to the reality. karen, we were just talking about this. never historically has it been locked up by someone who is not a sitting president? >> that's right. if things tonight go the way the

polls suggest they're going to go, we're now in the general election, and this is earlier than any campaign i certainly can think of in modern times. it is at -- at this point trump is going to be able to consolidate all the fund-raising, all the state parties, all the organizational infrastructure. it is going to be the longest, grim midwest general election campaign i think that any of us can remember. >> it sounds optimistic. we have to be truth telling here. christopher, let me ask you, polls are still open right now, people are still voting. what kind of new hampshire surprises could happen tonight? what -- tell us about the history. >> we could see that the early exit polls really do capture a huge surge in independents. we could see haley make huge inroads against self-identified republicans who might be

disaffected with trump, who think maybe we shouldn't core nate trump after just the first two contests. i think with those numbers there's a possibility that happens. on the drk side, i think everyone in the state party and everyone in the white house for different reasons are hoping nobody notices, that just the president wins and we can all forget about it and the new hampshire democratic party can try to protect the primary for 2028. >> we'll see if that happens. tell us how if people want to get your texts, how do they get them? >> you can find the link on "the washington post" website. it's really -- my texts are really just a new way of trying to connect with readers and sort of bring them along on the campaign. >> that's exciting. i'm going to be getting myself on that text list. i'm looking forward to doing exactly that. there's a lot we're going to continue to cover tonight. i'm grateful to all of you on the panel for being here. christopher, thank you so much. lisa, continue to do reporting, break lots of news. we look forward to getting your

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coming up at the top of the hour, rachel maddow and all your msnbc primetime friends will take us through the night. polls closing in most places in just over an hour and statewide at 8:00 p.m. eastern time. stay with us for all the results and excitement. citement power e*trade's easy to-use tools

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>> as the indicted front-runner continues to plight his time, new hampshire goes to the polls. >> we're tired of losing. >> with a fate of the republican nomination in its